Agile Manufacturing in 2020:

Designers face many challenges when designing products and systems. The marketplace of 2020 will be more global and faster paced than today’s market. As the market expands and is shaped by new technology, a company’s success will depend on how quickly and appropriately it can generate and apply knowledge to a specific problem. ADG’s greatest asset is the knowledge of its employees, so this knowledge must be fostered and well managed. In order to design the complex, multidisciplinary systems that will dominate manufacturing in 2020, ADG must adopt a new approach to design that allows them to systematically decompose a complex design problem into simpler sub-problems. Systems engineering provides such a framework. In an iterative, hierarchical fashion systems are decomposed into subsystems and requirements are allocated to these subsystems based on estimates of their attributes. My primary recommendation in this report is that ADG adopt a systems engineering approach to product development and use modeling and simulation in specific roles that reduce uncertainty during the design process. Because there are currently limitations to this approach regarding the representation of uncertainty and model integration, I also identify avenues for future research that ADG should pursue jointly with academic researchers. Note: I approached the report by imagining a specific company, Agile Design Group (ADG). As suggested in the competition description, I have focused on the product realization process. Jason Aughenbaugh NSF/ASME Design Essay Competition 2004 1 Introductory Comments The CEO of ADG (Agile Design Group) has stated the goal of positioning ADG to be a high-tech global manufacturing enterprise in the year 2020. In this report, I share my vision of how ADG can achieve this goal. I outline policies and methods that I believe will make ADG an agile and successful manufacturing enterprise in 2020. Compared to today, the world of 2020 will be characterized both by more complex systems and a marketplace that requires greater agility. My approach to preparing ADG for this world is motivated by my view that in addition to the product system being manufactured, a company must recognize the human system that designs the product system. In order to be successful in 2020, ADG must successfully manage its human system, its product systems, and the interactions between the two systems. I set the context of my recommendations by stating that your key to success at ADG is your employees and the knowledge that they can bring to bear on your projects. However, employees face several challenges to using knowledge effectively. First, they cannot consider all options and all consequences simultaneously because human rationality is inherently bounded [1]. Second, before it can be used, the information and knowledge has to be created. Third, in order to apply information and knowledge effectively, designers need to have access to it. This requires storing knowledge and communicating between disciplines and across thought-worlds [2, 3]. In order to be a manufacturing leader in 2020, ADG must overcome these challenges. ADG can overcome these challenges by adopting a new corporate philosophy, taking a new approach to product development, and embracing new technology. I begin my report by briefly explaining my view of design and manufacturing in the year 2020, including the market and technologies of the product system. I then present the context of knowledge management in which I set my recommendations. In the next section I present my recommendation of systems engineering as the design methodology for 2020. I then explain how modeling and simulation support this approach. Finally, I discuss some limitations of this approach and avenues for future research. 2 Manufacturing in the year 2020 Manufacturing, like all industries, both adapts to and alters the world around it. For hundreds of years, Western Civilization expanded geographically by establishing colonies and opening new trade routes. More recently, new markets have been opening as a result of shrinking geography. Railroads and then airplanes sliced travel times for physical goods. The telegraph, then the telephone, and most recently the internet have enabled almost instant communication of increasing amount of data, information, and knowledge between nearly any two points on Earth. These new connections have changed the way companies do business and affected consumer demands. Modern consumers want more of what the world has to offer, sooner. Companies can fill these increased demands in part by automating manufacturing.